Hey I'm Just Say'n

Went 8-5 vs the spread in the NFL Week 5 last week with a good afternoon game let’s take a last minute look at today’s games:

Atlanta -9.5 vs Oakland

Atlanta at home vs a Raiders team struggling and then traveling cross country.  Take your pick as to the fantasy studs for Atlanta, Ryan, Jones, White or Gonzalez.  They’re all must starts this week in the ATL. Falcons 35 – 16

Baltimore -3.5 vs Dallas

I like Romo bouncing back this week to have a decent game at the Ravens, suspect pass defense, but Dallas on the road against a quality opponent…I don’t see the Cowboys covering.  I’ve said it before that I’m not a big Flacco guy and he proved why last week.  I don’t like him here, but Ray Rice is a must start, we just need the Ravens to not fall in love with the passing game and get Rice the 25+ carries he should get to control this game. Raven’s 27 – Dallas 20

Cincinnati -2.5 at Cleveland

Here’s thinking Cincy hit a speed bump last week vs Miami and have a nice bounce back game at the Brown’s expense.  Dalton is a good start vs a bad Brown’s defense and should hook up a couple times with stud AJ Green today.  I also like Richardson to put up decent numbers, as the Browns should put the ball in his hands 20+ times to control the clock and Weeden turnovers. Bengals 31 – Browns 17

St Louis  +5 at Miami

Look for the Rams to cover the spread, but I look for Miami to win the game outright in a match-up between two pleasantly surprising teams.  I like the Rams defense to put pressure on Tannehill, but don’t look for the Rams to move the ball non to easy against the Miami defense. Dolphins 16 – Rams 13

NY Jets – 3.5 vs Indianapolis

Believe it or not, I like Sanchez here at home.  Big win last week for the Colts who are on an emotional roller coaster right now and going on the road will be tough. Wayne having a huge season and should be a good start, but the Colts have to get others involved to keep this one close.  Jets had decent game in loss to the Texans last week, but this is a must win today. Jets 27 – Colts 20

Detroit +3.5 at Philadelphia

It looks like the Eagles will be in tight games all season.  I keep waiting for the Lions to play like I thought they were capable of playing this season, but the defense looks like they can’t step it up for the when the offense struggles.  I look for Vick to have a big game today and for Philly to win out right in another close battle. Philly 35 – Lions 32

Kansas City +4.5 at Tampa Bay

Take the Chiefs with the points.  Another game that looks to be close and I look for Tampa to win. but not cover.  Charles and Bowe should be solid fantasy starts as should Freeman and Doug Martin for Tampa.  Tampa 27 – KC 24

Buffalo +5 at Arizona

Arizona comes down to earth and Buffalo answers the gut check game.  Look for the Bills defense to go all out today vs a depleted and really not so good offense.  Buffalo wins this out right and going away. Buffalo 31 – Arizona 20

New England -3.5 at Seattle

I struggle going against Seattle at home , as their defense should make it difficult for the Patriots, but it’s tougher to pick against Brady.  I do like Lynch in this game as I like Gronkowski to get 2 in the endzone today.  New England 27 – Seattle 20

NY Giants +7 at San Fransisco

49ers to win game, but giving the NY Giants 7 is just too much.  SF in a close game that go down to the wire. SF 28 – NY Giants 27

Minnesota -E at Washington

Another surprise team is the Vikings and I look for them to win on the road.  RGIII to play, but I don’t see him being as willing to run.  Harvin has been great and here’s hoping Peterson gets in the endzone today. Vikings 20 – Redskins 17

Houston – 3.5 vs Green Bay 

Houston stays unbeaten and the Packers are in some trouble.  Schaub is a must start today and I like Andre Johnson to have a big game.  I’d be skeptical with Rogers.  The Texans will be playing pass all day and coming after the Packers QB.

San Diego -1 vs Denver

Looking for a shoot out here as Denver tries to prove they can play on the road.  Demaryius Thomas is a beast in the making.  As Manning becomes more and more comfortable with him, look for both guys to put up good numbers.  Rivers will have to keep pace, making him also a good start today. Chargers 37 – Broncos 34

Where’s the money being placed:

* Numbers from www.thespread.com

First, I’ll take the Baltimore Orioles tonight over Texas Rangers.  Yu Darvish would seem to have the advantage on the mound vs Joe Saunders, but I like Saunders and this is new territory for Darvish.  I also like that the pressure is all on Texas.  They blew the division late and the O’s have just been playing steady baseball all year.

In the National league, I’m going with the Braves.  They’ve owned the Cardinals over the season 5-1 and Kris Medlen has been light’s out the second half of the year.  Kyle Lohse goes for the Cardinals.

Onto Week 5 of the NFL.  Congrat’s to the Rams for beating the Cardinals Thursday night and finally exposing the Arizona Offense for what it is…week! My picks of this weeks games:

Atlanta -3 at Washington

I like Atlanta to stay undefeated.  RGIII has preformed terrific in his rookie season, but Atlanta’s weapons are just too much.  Last weeks game was too close for the Falcons, but it is a wake up game for them…you’ve got to come to play every week in the NFL!  Atlanta 27 – 20.

Philadelphia +3 at Pittsburgh

Philly piling up the stats and last week even hung onto the football, but still needed a missed field goal to win it. Look for another close game from both teams. Pittsburgh 31 – 30.

Green Bay -7 at Indianapolis

It’s about time Green Bay beats somebody handily.  I think the Packers will get after Luck and make life tough on him this week.  The Colts are tough against the pass and Green Bay is without Jennings again, so it won’t be a blow out, but I expect the Packers to cover. Green Bay 31 – 16

NY Giants -9.5 vs Cleveland

The Giants rebound in a big way at home against a weaker opponent. Cleveland ranks near the bottom in pass defense and Manning will exploit the secondary.  Big fantasy day for Giants owners! New York 38 – 13

Tennessee +5.5 at Minnesota

Minnesota will win outright, but the game will be close.  Look for Hasselbeck to have a decent game and help keep Tennessee in it. Minnesota 24-21

Cincinnati-3 vs Miami

Cincinnati offense has more to offer then the past two offenses the Dolphins have faced (NYJets and Arizona).  Miami travelling back to back weeks will also help the Bengals get off to a fast start against a Miami pass defense that is less then spectacular. Cincy 30 – 20

Kansas City +6 vs Baltimore

I look for Kansas City to upset Baltimore at home this week and win the game outright.  Kansas City will control the game as they match up pretty well against the Ravens defense. KC 27 – 20.

Carolina -3 vs Seattle

Just don’t like Seattle traveling cross country and then keeping up with Cam Newton.  Good Seattle defense and Seattle should be able to run the ball on Carolina, but I look for Carolina to cover at home. Carolina 28 – 24.

Jacksonville +4.5 vs Chicago

Chicago coming off big win Monday night vs Dallas and then must travel on a short week?  It’s a tough task. On paper the Bears are the better team, but I see MJD getting 30 touches and Jacksonville covering at home in a close game. Chicago 17 – 16

New England -6.5 vs Denver

Denver just isn’t the same team on the road and New England figured something out last week, half through the 3rd quarter! Look for New England to score early and put Denver on their heals, making them 1 dimensional.  Denver will need to control the tympo with the run and if Willis McGahee gets 22+ carries, Denver will have a chance to keep it close. New England 35 – 27

San Francisco -9.5 vs Buffalo

Bills defense a huge disappointment.  There’s no imagination to defense coordinator, Dave Wannstedt, schemes and until they get a little creative, I don’t see them stopping anybody with a solid offense.  On the other side of the ball, the Bills offense line is a little banged up and the 49ers aren’t the team to be playing if your banged up.  Fitzpatrick protects the ball the Bills have a fighting chance, but I don’t see that happening against this defense at home.  San Francisco 27 – 16

New Orleans -3.5 vs San Diego

I see New Orleans getting a victory in the win column, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.  The Saints need to get out front early and put their foot to the peddle, which I see Drew Brees and company doing at home this week.  New Orleans 38 – 27

New York Jets +8 vs Houston

If Jets don’t put up a fight, their season may be heading south.  They’ll come out playing at home and keep it close, but I don’t see Houston losing.  Jets will cover, but not win, if Sanchez doesn’t give the J-E-T-S fan reason to chant Tebow’s name! Houston 20 – 17

Were is the money being played?

Lets see if things get back to normal on the Fantasy Fronts with the ref’s back.  Look for some high scoring games this week and some big fantasy numbers.  I like the Atlanta game and the the Green Bay game to be a very nice fantasy numbers games. Below are my thoughts and Rankings for the NFL week 4:

I had a decent week in week 2 going 9-6-1 (17-14-1 for the season), with Tampa Bay being the push at 7 pts.  Proud that I had the Dolphins and the Rams getting points and picked them to win straight up.  On the flip side, what happened to the Patriots (or should I ask “What’s going on with the Arizona Cardinals?”)?  Also , had Philly beating the Ravens by more then 3.5, but turnovers kept in closer then that with Philly winning by 1.  My picks for week 3 are below and the Vegas spreads as of today are at the bottom of this post. As an added bonus I found where people are placing their money at Thespread.com at placed that at the end of my picks…(1 Football tough call – 5 Footballs lock pick)

Thursday Night:

Giants -1 at Carolina

Dangerous game to pick.  I see the NY Giants coming together last week and stepping it up after last weeks come from behind win and the fact that they are short handed.  On the other side of the coin is a Panther team that can exploit the injury riddled Giants defense.  I see that NY Giant defense line getting after the Panthers and the Giants plying ball control to keep Cam Newton off the field. 2 Footballs

Tampa Bay +7 at Dallas

Another tough pick.  Both teams coming off tough loses. I like Dallas, but they looked terrible against Seattle and 7 points might be too much. Tampa Bay goes on the road the second week in a row, always tough to do. Plus, losing the big lead in a game is difficult to overcome for a young team. 1 Football

Rams +9 at Chicago

Just too many points to give to a much improved Rams team.  The Bears should win the game, but 9 points is a lot to give.  Take the Rams with the points. 4 Footballs

49ers – 7 at Minnesota

The 49ers top the power ranking and Harbough will keep them focused against a lesser team in Minnesota.  This is the play this week, won’t be close. 5 Footballs

Detroit -3 at Tennessee

Another game were I like the road dog a lot.  Perfect place for Detroit to put together a complete game.  I don’t see Tennessee being in this game and the 3 isn’t enough. 4 Footballs

Cincy +4 at Washington

I like Cincy and that’s saying a lot as I’ve never been much of a Marvin Lewis guy, but I think Cincy will play ball control to the injury plagued Washington Defense.  I like Cincy out right in this one as well. 4 Footballs

Kansas City +9 at New Orleans

Tough pick as KC looks terrible.  The Saints also looking bad, but would like to believe their the more talented team.  The Saints defense will keep opponents in the game though and 9 is too many points.  Saints win, but don’t cover. 3 Footballs

NY Jets -3 at Miami

I’ll take another road dog here.  Which Jets team shows up???? I think the Jets will rebound versus the Dolphins.  The Jets defense will dominate and keep this a low scoring affair. 3 Footballs

Bills -3 at Cleveland

Tough taking the Bills on the road as a favorite and the Browns may be better then I’m giving them credit, but Buffalo defense takes care of business here vs the young Cleveland backfield.  Take the Bills to cover. 2 Footballs

Colts -3 vs Jacksonville

Don’t like either team here, so we’ll go with the home team in what should be a close game.  Wouldn’t be surprised if Jacksonville wins straight up, but I believe the home field will be enough to cover. 1 Football

Eagles -4 at Arizona

OK, Philly wins by more then a point.  Arizona seems to be doing it with mirrors.  Their defense is winning games and the offense is avoiding shooting itself in the foot.  Eagles take care of the ball the win going away here. 4 Footballs

Atlanta +3 at San Diego

Falcons just a better team and getting points is a bonus.  Atlanta wins straight up, they’re not going to stumble here vs a Norv Turner team. Second lock of the weekend. 5 Footballs

Denver +1 vs Houston

Like Denver at home as Manning returns to being the real Peyton Manning.  I like this Texans team, but I really like the Bronco defense.  The Monday night game should’ve been a lot worse if it weren’t for the Bronc defense stepping it up.  Take the Broncos getting the point at home. 4 Footballs

Steelers -4.5 at the Raiders

This will be a telling game for the Steelers and I believe they step up on the road to beat the Raiders.  Not sure were I stand with this Raider team, losing to Miami on the road I picked, but losing as badly as they did not seen. 3 Footballs

Patriots +3 at Baltimore

Patriots losing at home to the Cardinals last week shows a crack in the Patriot Armor. I’m just not ready to give them points in any game.  New England will slow Rice down and force Flacco to beat. Don’t see Flacco answering that challenge.  Patriots rebound and win straight up.

Monday Night

Green Bay – 3.5 at Seattle

Another road dog that has something to prove.  Green Bay straightens things out this week at Seattle.  Not a bad Seattle team, but I think the Packers flex a little here offensively and cover on the road. 3 Footballs

As you see I also leaned most games to where the money is being laid. Let me know what you think and enjoy tonight’s game!

Thursday, September 20

303 New York Giants -1 (52)

304 Carolina Panthers +1

Sunday, September 23

403 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (45.5)

404 Dallas Cowboys -7

401 St. Louis Rams +9 (44.5)

402 Chicago Bears -9

405 San Francisco 49ers -7 (43.5)

406 Minnesota Vikings +7

407 Detroit Lions -3 (47)

408 Tennessee Titans +3

409 Cincinnati Bengals +4 (47.5)

410 Washington Redskins -4

413 Kansas City Chiefs +9 (54.5)

414 New Orleans Saints -9

411 New York Jets -3 (40.5)

412 Miami Dolphins +3

415 Buffalo Bills -3 (43.5)

416 Cleveland Browns +3

417 Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (42)

418 Indianapolis Colts -3

419 Philadelphia Eagles -4 (44)

420 Arizona Cardinals +4

421 Atlanta Falcons +3 (48)

422 San Diego Chargers -3

423 Houston Texans -1 (46.5)

424 Denver Broncos +1 (46.5)

425 Pittsburgh Steelers –4.5 (44)

426 Oakland Raiders +4.5

427 New England Patriots +3 (48.5)

428 Baltimore Ravens –3

Monday, September 24

429 Green Bay Packers -3.5 (47.5)

430 Seattle Seahawks +3.5